Reading Packet




Course Work

Value Based Research




The following is a set of articles intended to provoke the students to think a little differently about the analysis of businesses and, as a consequence, about investing.  Some of the articles are a little off-beat, but provide great material for class discussion.  I suspect that some of them may cause you to think a bit differently, as well.


All of the files are in pdf format; some of the files are large because they are scanned from originals.

Introduction - Thinking

A Calculated Risk by Katherine Neville  (This except has little to do with the novel, but is a great short essay on investing.)

Prophetic Fallacies from The History of the Future by David A. Wilson

The Art of Forecasting by Donald M. McCloskey

Everyone's an Expert by Louis Menand (essentially a review of Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock)

Ditch the Experts - one more review of Tetlock's book

The Value of Predictions by Howard S. Marks

The Forecast for the Forecasters is Dismal by Daniel Gross

Miracle on Probability Street by Michael Shermer

On Thinking by Arthur Zeikel

Debunked from Debunked by Georges Charpak and Henri Broch

Mind Games for Gamblers from Randomness by Deborah J. Bennett

Brain Scan - the Link Between Lust for Sex and Money - The title tells it all!

Open Secrets by Malcolm Gladwell  (This link takes you to Malcolm's archive of his New Yorker essays.)

Feynman's Rainbow - a short comment on believing other people's "theories" without verifying them for yourself, from Feynman's Rainbow by Leonard Mlodinow

Munger's Worldly WIsdom - a speech Charlie Munger gave the USC Business School in 1994.

General Theory

How Can We Be Sure That Albert Einstein Was Not a Crank? from Cranks, Quarks and the Cosmos by Jeremy Bernstein

Capital Markets

Hive Mind from Out of Control by Kevin Kelly

Wisdom of Crowds from Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki

The Wisdom and Whims of the Collective by Michael Mauboussin

Super Tuesday: Markets Predict Outcome Better Than Polls by Gary Stix

Revisiting Market Efficiency by Michael Mauboussin

The State of Long-Term Expectations - Chapter 12 from General Theory by John Maynard Keynes

Portfolio Management

The Evolution of an Investor by Michael Lewis

Evolution of a Value Investor - Zeke Ashton

Corporate Strategy

Thinking CAPs by Bill Mahoney

Creative Destruction by Richard N. Foster and Sarah Kaplan


Greater Expectations by Peter Bernstein - from the introduction of Michael Mauboussin's book Expectations Investing with Alfred Rappaport

Mauboussin on Strategy: The Importance of Expectations by Michael Mauboussin


the consilient observer: Great (Growth) Expectations by Michael Mauboussin

the consilient observer: The Pyramid of Numbers by Michael Mauboussin

the consilient observer: I've Fallen and I Can't Get Up by Michael Mauboussin


What Are the Chances? by Seth Schiesel

The Odds of That by Lisa Belkin

Weather Has Nothing To Do With Your Arthritis by Gina Kolata

Blowing Up by Malcolm Gladwell  (This link takes you to Malcolm's archive of his New Yorker essays)

Beware of Black Swans: Why We Fail to Predict the Major Events in our Lives by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, PhD

The Blow-Up Artist an updated article on Niederhoffer by John Cassidy from The New Yorker

In Nature's Casino by Michael Lewis

Decision Making for Investing

The Checklist by Atul Gawande (author of the expanded treatment:  The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right )

Wired for Wealth by Jason Zweig (editor of the most recent edition of  Intelligent Investor )

Tyranny of Choice by Barry Schwartz

Payback Time by Benedict Carey

Later: What does procrastination tell us about ourselves by James Surowiecki (author of:  The Wisdom of Crowds )






This page was last updated on 10/29/12.