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The following is a set of articles intended to provoke the students to think a little differently about the analysis of businesses and, as a consequence, about investing. Some of the articles are a little off-beat, but provide great material for class discussion. I suspect that some of them may cause you to think a bit differently, as well.
All of the files are in pdf format; some of the files are large because they are scanned from originals. Introduction - Thinking A Calculated Risk by Katherine Neville (This except has little to do with the novel, but is a great short essay on investing.) Prophetic Fallacies from The History of the Future by David A. Wilson The Art of Forecasting by Donald M. McCloskey Everyone's an Expert by Louis Menand (essentially a review of Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock) Ditch the Experts - one more review of Tetlock's book The Value of Predictions by Howard S. Marks The Forecast for the Forecasters is Dismal by Daniel Gross Miracle on Probability Street by Michael Shermer On Thinking by Arthur Zeikel Debunked from Debunked by Georges Charpak and Henri Broch Mind Games for Gamblers from Randomness by Deborah J. Bennett Brain Scan - the Link Between Lust for Sex and Money - The title tells it all! Open Secrets by Malcolm Gladwell (This link takes you to Malcolm's archive of his New Yorker essays.) Feynman's Rainbow - a short comment on believing other people's "theories" without verifying them for yourself, from Feynman's Rainbow by Leonard Mlodinow General Theory How Can We Be Sure That Albert Einstein Was Not a Crank? from Cranks, Quarks and the Cosmos by Jeremy Bernstein Capital Markets Hive Mind from Out of Control by Kevin Kelly Wisdom of Crowds from Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki The Wisdom and Whims of the Collective by Michael Mauboussin Super Tuesday: Markets Predict Outcome Better Than Polls by Gary Stix Revisiting Market Efficiency by Michael Mauboussin The State of Long-Term Expectations - Chapter 12 from General Theory by John Maynard Keynes The Evolution of an Investor by Michael Lewis Corporate Strategy All Strategy is Local - HBR article by Bruce Greenwald and Judd Kahn; perhaps the best analysis of competitive advantage ever published. Thinking CAPs by Bill Mahoney Valuation Greater Expectations by Peter Bernstein - from the introduction of Michael's book Expectations Investing with Alfred Rappaport Risk What Are the Chances? by Seth Schiesel The Odds of That by Lisa Belkin Weather Has Nothing To Do With Your Arthritis by Gina Kolata Blowing Up by Malcolm Gladwell (This link takes you to Malcolm's archive of his New Yorker essays.) Beware of Black Swans: Why We Fail to Predict the Major Events in our Lives by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, PhD The Blow-Up Artist an updated article on Niederhoffer by John Cassidy from The New Yorker In Nature's Casino by Michael Lewis Decision Making for Investing Wired for Wealth by Jason Zweig (editor of the recent edition of Intelligent Investor ) Tyranny of Choice by Barry Schwartz Payback Time by Benedict Carey The Hidden Traps in Decision Making by John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa Just Great Articles Darwin's God by Robin Marantz Henig
This page was last updated on 06/01/08.
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